How long? How deep? Those were the questions floating around the
room at one of the first recession discussions I attended late last
year.
For the most part, these are still the questions sitting out
there. No one really knows how deep. How long? We’re not sure, but
we’re getting some idea.
Trying to figure all of this out is a matter of watching ripples
travel across the economy to see how much they shake job markets,
housing markets and other aspects of our economy.
A ripple that we need to pay attention to is the one related to
home values as it begins to rock the budgets of local
governments.
This year is an assessment year, which means our home values
will be reassessed for property tax purposes, as they are every odd
numbered year. It’s a rotten time to be in the assessment business,
but this year could be a doozy.
We’ve been wallowing in the economy since September or October
of last year. Everything that happened before that seems like it
happened a lifetime ago. Count your upcoming property valuation as
one of those things that happened so long ago.
When your new valuation comes out later this year, it will
reflect the value of your home as it was assessed between Jan. 1,
2007 and June 30, 2008. Home values were sliding then, but they
weren’t caught up in the full tumble of the economy until after
that.
That means a couple of things. One, your property valuation will
seem high to you this year. Be kind to your assessor.
Two, the dip in our property values that we’re experiencing in
the market right now may revisit us in the form of reduced funding
for government services during the 2011 assessment year that paints
the property tax picture through 2013.
This is where we start to get a bead on answering the question
of, “How long?”
Some estimates in Douglas County anticipate as much as a 20
percent drop in assessed property value in 2011.
What does this mean in terms of funding for government services
and taxation? That’s a question I’ve been wrestling with for the
past few weeks. If everything before September 2008 seems like
ancient history, then figuring out property tax mill levies is
calculus.
Each taxing entity, whether it’s a city or a water district,
sets its mill levy each December based on the array of spending
limitations and expenses requirements that make up their budgets.
Some aspects of the mill levy, such as operating expenses, are
limited to a certain mill levy by voter approval. Those will bring
in less revenue when property values as a whole drop. Mill levies
that retire debt fluctuate to generate whatever must be paid.
That’s the broad brush view of this. Trust me, it’s far more
complicated than that for each government agency that assesses
property tax. There are more than 700 taxing entities in Douglas
County alone.
Many of us are trying to keep our heads above water right now.
We’re trying to keep our jobs and keep our companies viable, as we
should. What you need to take away from this column, though, is
that things are happening outside our home-based budgets that may
not bode well for the future living here in Arapahoe and Douglas
counties.
Our economic situation right now is setting the stage for hard
choices we’ll be wrestling with three and four years from now. Last
November’s election saw nearly every ballot question asking
taxpayers for more money go down in defeat amidst a then new wave
of economic fear. Those ballot questions cost facilities for school
districts, libraries and numerous other amenities in our
communities. In some cases, those no votes shorted staffs and are
responsible for today’s public meetings dominated by talks of
cutbacks in services. Secondarily, they cost the community
amenities that add to our quality of life and, ironically, property
values.
It won’t get better on its own. We’re looking ahead to a future
where community needs continue to mount as the financial resources
to meet those needs seem to be declining with the economy.
As an editor, I’ve often preached the need for civic
involvement. I don’t think I’ve ever believed in that need as much
as I do right now. Over the next few weeks, we’re going to look at
the impacts some of these districts are preparing for. But we can’t
explain it all in all of the detail you need to know. The
wide-reaching impact of these changes to our tax-base and the
complexity of it all is something you all need to immerse
yourselves in.
You don’t need to do this out of some abstract sense of
citizenship. You need to do it so the community you enjoy doesn’t
erode to the point that you don’t want to live there anymore. There
doesn’t seem to be much we can control about the economy at large
these days, but we can pay more attention to how it will impact our
neighborhoods and cities.
They are worth the investment of time and attention.
Jeremy Bangs is the managing editor of Colorado Community
Newspapers. His e-mail address is jbangs@ccnewspapers.com.